Fodlan is, in a word, tense. The Nabateans and the Agarthians seem to be quarreling, though as far as you can tell at present the conflict has been unspoken tension at best and verbal assaulting at worst. The Agarthians you run into seem to be chafing under Nabatean rule, citing technological deprivation as one of their main grievances. On the other end, the Nabateans seem... irritated, with their subjects, confused at their increasingly imperialist behavior. Fortunately it seems to be just that, quarreling. Outright violent conflict hasn't occurred- at least not in the open- with both sides seeming supremely reluctant or even adamant about not devolving into open warfare; you're not sure whether this is out of love for their fellow man or the pragmatic belief that war at this point in time would be unprofitable.
Either way, something has to give, and something tells you it'll happen soon....